D'où proviennent les idées prédictives, quelle est leur logique et comment sont-elles vendues sur le marché des idées ? Anticiper le futur est-ce vraiment anticiper le changement ? Quels sont les effets de ces idées sur la sécurité internationale ?

Ce colloque est organisé en partenariat avec l’Institut Jean Nicod (ENS) et se déroulera le 16 mars 2012 au CERI/Sciences Po (56, rue Jacob 75006 Paris) et le 17 mars 2012 à l’ENS (46 rue d’Ulm, 75005 Paris).

Programme :

Friday March 16th, CERI-Sciences Po 56, rue Jacob - 75006 Paris, salle de conférences

9.00-9.30    Welcome Reception

9.30-10.00  Opening Remarks: Why Predictions? Why Now?

• Ariel Colonomos, CNRS/CERI-Sciences Po

10.00-12.00 Predicting What / The Forecast of What?

Discussant: Bruno Tertrais, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris

• Forecasting in the Security Community: An American Perspection
  • Bowman Miller, National Intelligence University, Washington DC
• Anticipating the Future of China: A Critique of the Modernization Thesis
  • Jack Snyder, Columbia University

2.00-3.45    Measuring the Future

Discussant: Richard Beardsworth, The American University of Paris

• Indicators and Regulation: Implications for Prediction
  • Benedict Kingsbury, NYU
• The Past Future: How and Why Past Population Projections Failed
  • Hervé Le Bras, EHESS

3.45-4.00    Coffee Break

4.00-6.00    Predicting the Future

Discussant: Jenny Andersson, CNRS/CERI-Sciences Po

• Pre-crime strategy, Proactivity, Preemption, Prevention, Precaution, Protection, Profiling, Prediction, & Privacy
  • Didier Bigo, Sciences Po, King’s College
• Prediction Markets Predict Well, But Few Care
  • Robin Hanson, George Mason University, IFH-Oxford

Saturday March 17th, Ecole Normale Supérieure 46, rue d'Ulm - 75005 Paris, salle de conférences

9.30-12.00    The Epistemology of Predictions

Discussant: Institut Nicod

• What are we asking about when we ask about the Future? A Social-Epistemological Perspective on Probability Questions
  • Gloria Origgi, CNRS-Institut Jean Nicod, Paris and Nassim Taleb, Institut Jean Nicod
• On the Ontological and Ethico-Political Presuppositions of Assigning Probabilities to Possible Futures
  • Heikki Patomäki, Helsinki University
• Forecasting Security and ‘Inefficient Causation’
  • Richard Ned Lebow, Dartmouth College

2.00-5.00    The Political Crossroads of the Future

Discussant: Pierre Hassner, CERI-Sciences Po

• Focal Points in International Security
  • Ariel Colonomos, CNRS/CERI-Sciences Po
• Your Future is our Past: Reversing the Arrow of Time in the Discussion of a WMD Free Zone in the Middle East
  • Grégoire Mallard, Northwestern University
• When Predictors say What cannot be Done: Nuclear Forecasting as Political Judgments in Denial and its Effect on National Security Debates
  • Benoit Pelopidas, Stanford University