Computation, be it based on statistical modeling or newest techniques of predictive analytics, holds the promise to be able to anticipate and act infallibly on futures and uncertain situations more generally. That the future is an object of governmental knowledge and action is nothing new though. What is the characteristic of today’s relationship with futures in policy making and action? To what extent do the means of computation, from statistical models to learning algorithms employed in predictive analytics change this relationship, and the collective capacity and legitimacy to engage with future, uncertain situations? How do technologies of prediction change policies? Who predicts, how, and with what effects on decisions and administration and on their politics? More generally, how do ways of predicting institutionalize, fail to do so or change?

Presentation

This international event concludes the ANR-funded INNOX research project. It will take place at the Musée des Arts et Métiers on 11-13 September 2017. Keynote lectures will be given by Steve Hilgartner (Cornell University), Claudia Aradau (King’s College London) and Paul N. Edwards (Stanford University and University of Michigan).

Contributions on modelling and prediction in matters of health, environment, climate, agriculture, security, crime and urban management, will be offered by a range of international speakers including Stefan Aykut, Silke Beck, Bilel Benbouzid, Henri Boullier, Dominique Cardon, Christophe Cassen, François Dedieu, David Demortain, Bruno Dorin, Céline Granjou, Pierre-Benoit Joly, Francis Lee, Adrian Mackenzie, Martin Mahony, Grégoire Mallard, Sylvain Parasie, Dirk Scheer.

Free registration at: conference@innox.fr (please indicate your name, surname and affiliation, and days you will be attending)

All practical information and an up-to-date program may be found at: www.innox.fr or by writing to the organizer: demortain@inra-ifris.org

Program

Monday 11 September

• 9h30 : Registration
• 10h30 : Introduction – David Demortain

• 11h : KEYNOTE SPEECH – STEVE HILGARTNER, CORNELL UNIVERSITY

12h30 – 14h : Lunch

Session 1. Communities of modelling

• 14h : Bruno DORIN and Pierre-Benoit JOLY: “A political economy of global agricultural modelling”.
• 14h45 : Christophe CASSEN, Béatrice COINTE and Alain NADAI : “Organizing policy relevant Expertise on Climate Action: the Community of Integrating Assessment Modelling”

15h30 – 16h : Coffee break

Session 2. Models as Agendas

• 16h : Silke BECK and Martin MAHONY : “The performative power of a solution-oriented assessment: the IPCC, map-making, and the BECCS experience”
• 16h45 - 17h30 : Stefan AYKUT: “Infrastructures of change? Trajectories of energy demand modeling in France and Germany”

Tuesday 12 september

• 9h : KEYNOTE SPEECH – CLAUDIA ARADAU, KING’S COLLEGE LONDON

10h30 – 11h : Coffee break

Session 2. The tools of prediction

• 11h : Bilel BENBOUZID : « Les ‘machines prédictives’ dans la police : technologie froide ou politique augmentée ? »
• 11h40 : David GUERANGER : « Faire peur, mais sans effrayer. La carrière politique de PIVERT à la communauté urbaine de Nantes (2005-2010) »
• 12h20 : Henri BOULLIER and David DEMORTAIN : “The economy of predictive knowledge : software tools to predict chemicals risk in REACH”

13h – 14h : Lunch

Session 3. New modes of prediction

• 14h : Dominique CARDON : « Prédiction personnalisée et méthodes d’apprentissage dans les outils calculatoires du web »
• 14h40 : Adrian MACKENZIE : title to be confirmed

15h20 – 15h50 : Coffee break

Session 4. Ways of counting and predicting health

• 15h50 : François DEDIEU and Sylvain PARASIE : title to be confirmed
• 16h30 - 17h10 : Francis LEE: « Where is Zika? Exploring the ambiguities of algorithms, data and judgment”

Wednesday 13 september

Session 5. Anticipating and simulating policies

• 9h45 : Céline GRANJOU : « Politiques de l’anticipation environnementale - Le cas d’une infrastructure prédictive des changements globaux : les écotrons »

10h30 – 11h : Coffee break

• 11h : Grégoire MALLARD : “The Art of Simulation: Speech Norms and Social Glue in Disarmament Talks in the Middle East”
• 11h45 : Dirk SCHEER : « A framework conceptualizing scientific simulation and policy-making”

12h30 – 13h30 : Lunch

• 13h30 : KEYNOTE SPEECH – PAUL EDWARDS, STANFORD UNIVERSITY AND UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

15h – 15h30 : Coffee break

15h30 – 16h30 : Round-table

16h30 – 16h45 : Concluding talk